Deliverables

During the project’s lifetime information on SURE-Fam will be shared here.  The following public deliverables are foreseen in the project:

Resilience Concept

D1.1 Report on resilience framework for EU agriculture

Farming systems in Europe face a vast range of environmental, economic, social and institutional challenges. Examples include more volatile producer and input prices, higher probability of extreme weather events, increasing dependence on land owners and financial institutions, organizational change within value chains, competing policy objectives and increasing administrative demands, and new societal concerns and changing consumer preferences. In this paper we define resilience as maintaining the essential functions of EU farming systems in the face of increasingly complex and volatile economic, social, environmental and institutional challenges. A farming system is a system hierarchy level above the farm at which properties emerge as a result of the formal and informal interactions and interrelations among farms, available technologies, stakeholders along the value chain, citizens in rural and urban areas, consumers, policy makers, and the environment. Existing resilience frameworks do not sufficiently capture the regional interplay of the multiple processes and stakeholders apparent in farming systems. In order to capture the described developments in EU agriculture, and in order to proactively address those challenges, we propose a framework to analyse the resilience of EU farming systems. The integrated framework can be applied by public and private decision makers to formulate differentiated strategies across EU farming systems depending on context-specific challenges and available resources.

D1.2 Report on scenarios for EU farming

When developing strategies or policies to increase resilience, private and public decision makers need to anticipate to future shocks and stresses affecting the systems they manage. However, they face the difficulty that the future is not fully known. Uncertainty exists with respect to key factors affecting the actions of interest. Scenarios are a useful tool to cope with such future uncertainties and can be used both as a way to explore—not predict—the future through the identification of potential opportunities and threats and as a way to make action more future-proof. The objective of this deliverable is to develop medium- to long-term explorative scenarios describing possible futures for the external environment that EU farming systems face. The external environment will include environmental issues, economic issues and social issues. Consumer trends are typically not or insufficiently included in farming systems related scenarios and will therefore get particular attention. The purpose is to produce scenarios that encompass a wide range of issues characterised in both a quantitative and a qualitative way that can be used to guide further work in SURE-Farm.

D1.3 Report on farm typology and farming systems selection

The farm typology approach uses to respond to the research questions where statistics on average farm characteristics are not representative for the majority of the farms in the study regions. Taking into account the heterogeneity of agriculture within a region is the primary objective of the constructing farm typologies. The selection of factors that define the farm typology varies from study to study, and is governed by the research purpose. The objective of the SURE-Farm farm typology is to classify EU farms in groups that are homogeneous, characteristic and representative regarding their challenges to cope with requirements of resilience of farms and farming systems.

D1.4 Press release on resilience framework for EU agriculture

Resilience of the agricultural sector is an important aim of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Most often, resilience is focused on stimulating robustness, with policy and market instruments aimed at maintaining the stability of the farm business. However, a group of European scientists argues that this is too narrow a way of looking at resilience. They state that while robustness contributes to agricultural development, the current higher risk environment also requires other types of capacity in food and agribusiness: namely adaptability and transformability.

D1.5 Policy brief on resilience framework, scenarios and farm typology

To achieve its objectives in a changing world, the Common Agricultural Policy needs to put the resilience of Europe’s farming systems at its center.  The current CAP focuses on making the farming community more robust against shocks in the short run. However, a broader view on resilience is needed to ensure a sustainable agricultural sector in the longer term. This new vision should pay sufficient attention to developing the capacities of both individual farms and farming systems to adapt to changing circumstances and to transform their business models where necessary to maintain the delivery of food, fiber, energy and public goods in the long run.

Risk Management

D2.1 Report on farmers’ perceptions of risk, adaptive capacity and resilience

Multiple economic, ecological, institutional and societal challenges raise concern about the future functionality of agriculture and more specifically of farms in Europe, which leads to an increased need to understand and improve its resilience. We aim to provide a comprehensive overview of farmers’ perception and self-assessment of resilience that would serve as a solid basis for further research on farm resilience. In order to achieve the aim, a farmer survey was designed based on theories of risk communication, decision theory and psychometric models. We conducted the survey in 11 case study regions across the European Union. No previous empirical research on farm resilience included so many diverse case studies.

D2.2 Report on biographical narratives exploring short- and long-term adaptive behavior of EU farmers

Resilience over time is achieved across the increasingly fundamental attributes of robustness, adaptability and transformability, representing system responses to short, medium and long-term external drivers, respectively. Analysis of narratives can be used to enable researchers to gain indepth understanding of the rationale surrounding farmer decision making when faced with drivers of change, and how farmers manage critical decision points in their farming businesses. This report assesses personal histories of family farms, and business histories of corporate farms, to identify phases in the separate production, demographic and policy adaptive cycles as they have impacted on the individuals concerned and their business enterprises. Biographical stories were collected from nine to ten narrators (early-, mid- and late-career),in each of five case studies chosen to represent a range of regions and farming systems in Europe. A single question was used to initiate the narrators’ stories, without qualification beforehand, supported only with expressions of interest and encouragement in the first part of the interview, with subsequent exploratory questions devoted to clarifying the internal structure of the narrative.

D2.3 Report on farmers’ collective learning and self-organization

D2.4 Open-access paper on the use of remote sensing-based approaches for crop and livestock production

D2.5 Policy brief on farmer adaptive behavior and risk management in EU agriculture

D2.6 Report on state and outlook for risk management in EU agriculture

D2.7 Business brief on opportunities for improved risk management for EU agriculture

D2.8 Open-access paper on the drivers of expenditure on the Risk Management Toolkit per member state.

Farm Demographics

D3.1 Report on current farm demographics and trends for selected regions

Farm demographics concerns dynamics within the farmers’ population and the provision of labour to farming systems, capturing both labour directly employed by the farmers’ population and hired labour force. This work uses both quantitative and qualitative data to provide an overview of trends in demographic processes of European farming systems over the last decades. The ultimate goal of his report is to identify and evaluate measures which improve the resilience of farm demographics and facilitate entry into the sector, for both farms and labour.

D3.2 Report on generational renewal and on occupational choice, cross-sector mobility and spatial migration

D3.3 Policy brief on farm demographics and impacts on farm structure

D3.4 Open-access paper on the formulation and adaptation of AB models to simulate generational renewal

This paper presents a tool to analyze the linkages between farm generational renewal and structural change of European farming regions, allowing researchers to assess the farm system’s resilience. There is a strong focus on farm generational renewal both within academia and policy. However, the focus often lies on the family. This results in a knowledge gap about generational renewal of the increasing number of farms which rely on hired labour and farm almost half of European agricultural land. To begin to fill the gap, the Agricultural Policy Simulator (AgriPoliS), an agent-based model used to analyze structural change of farm regions, has been selected to extend to simulate generational renewal. The model is calibrated to the Altmark, a heterogenous farming region in Germany with both family and corporate farms. To support the model’s extension and adaptation, a focus group work shop was held in the Altmark on farm generational renewal. The extension is used to simulate three scenarios, which reveal the robust and adaptive resilience capacities of the Altmark.

D3.5 Report on future farm demographics and structural change in selected regions of the EU

D3.6 Policy brief on future developments in farm demographics and structural change in selected regions of the EU

D3.7 Business brief on farming opportunities for entrants and young farmers

D3.8 Open-access paper on the implications of policies and institutional settings for farm demographics and structural change

D3.9 Policy brief on policy options for resilient farm demographics and farm structural

Policy

D4.1 Assessment tool (ResAT) to assess the capacity of policies to enhance the resilience of EU farming systems (Protocol).

The Resilience Assessment Tool (ResAT) assesses whether policy goals and instruments encourage, enable, tolerate or constrain farmers’ resilience enhancing strategies and resources. In the first step, the ResAT will be used to analyse and evaluate whether and how the CAP, its implementation in the eleven member states of our case studies, and additional relevant national policies address and support the resilience of farming systems.

D4.2 Report with the results of the assessment of strengths and weaknesses of the CAP

The Resilience Assessment Tool (ResAT) builds on broad academic literature that has identified characteristics of resilience-enhancing policies. However, it adds a distinction between policy characteristics that enhance either robustness, adaptability or transformability. This report presents the findings from an application of the Resilience Assessment Tool in eleven case studies across Europe to assess whether and how the current configuration of EU and national policies supports or constrains the capacity of regional farming systems to cope with the range of novel challenges. Understanding the CAP’s effects on the resilience of regional farming systems requires an analysis of the interactions between the CAP and various other policies, which occur not only within the sector, but also across sectors and jurisdictional levels.

D4.3 Five case study reports with the results of the assessments in the five regional case study areas

D4.4 Open-access paper with the overall assessment of the extent to which policies enable the resilience of the diverse farming systems

D4.5 Report with structured overview of policy options/governance strategies to improve policies’ resilience enabling capacity

D4.6 Policy brief with a critical analysis of how current policies constrain/enable resilient EU agriculture

Integrated assessment

D5.1 Report on IA tool to assess the resilience of farming systems and their delivery of private and public goods (Protocol).

An Integrated Assessment tool (IA) will be developed to operationalise the resilience framework. The IA tool will include both static and dynamic, and quantitative and qualitative models. The objective of this report is to describe tools proposed within SURE-Farm to assess resilience and to articulate the rationale for using them.

D5.2 Report on participatory impact assessments in case study regions

This report presents the results of a participatory sustainability and resilience assessment of 11 farming systems in the European Union (EU). The assessments focused on 1) ranking the importance of functions and selecting representative indicators for these functions, 2) scoring the current performance of the representative indicators, 3) sketching dynamics of main representative indicators of functions, 4) linking these dynamics to challenges and resilience enhancing strategies, 5) assessing level of implementation of identified strategies and their potential contribution to the robustness, adaptability and transformability of the farming system, and 6) assessing level of presence of resilience enhancing system characteristics (resilience attributes) and their potential contribution to the robustness, adaptability and transformability of the farming system.

D5.3 Report on resilience assessment of current farming systems across the EU

D5.4 Open-access paper on resilience assessment of current farming systems across the EU

D5.5 Report on impacts of future scenarios on the resilience of EU farming systems

D5.6 Report on impacts of improved strategies and policy options on the resilience of farming systems across the EU

D5.7 Policy brief on the resilience of farming systems in the EU under current conditions and future scenarios

D5.8 Open-access paper on comparative analysis of the resilience of EU farming systems

Enabling Environment

D6.1 Case-reporting protocol

One of the specific objectives of SURE-Farm is to identify integrated sets of conditions that effectively provide an enabling environment for resilient farming systems in Europe. It requires to integrate case studies findings on resilience enabling conditions and their impact on the attractiveness of the farming sector and its capacity to enhance adaptive behavior and learning. By linking these outcome values to the combinations of conditions, it is possible to identify which combinations of conditions are likely to improve resilience. The purpose of this protocol is to make sure that conditions will be characterized comprehensively and systematically across the various case studies.

D6.2 Report on combinations of conditions for successful and unsuccessful fostering of resilience in agricultural sectors

D6.3 Policy brief guiding principles for an enabling environment fostering resilience

D6.4 Implementation roadmaps for the implementation of the enabling environment principles

D6.5 Report on roadmap implementation and protocol for implementation monitoring

D6.6 Press release on roadmaps for enabling environment

Dissemination, Exploitation and Communication

D7.1 Web-page and project portal, social media accounts and cocreation platform

D7.2 Infographics delivered throughout the project

D7.3 Design of the plan for dissemination, exploitation and communication activities.

D7.6 A project’s edited book